2026 to 2027 investment case · client: Laura Gao

Gao Case Workbench

Laura puts in $450,000, then needs ten $50,000 residency payments starting in 2033 with a high degree of certainty, plus a facility contribution she can promise co-sponsors in 2031 without over-promising. This page lets your team test the numbers and pressure-test your strategy against what the case actually says.

Unofficial study tool. Not affiliated with or endorsed by Wharton Global Youth or Laura Gao. Facts are paraphrased from the published client case; read the original in SurveyMonkey Apply. All return figures below are example assumptions, not advice. If AI shapes your thinking, cite it the way the competition's AI policy asks.

The story in six panels

2026 · Year 0
$0

Today. Your team builds the strategy. WInS gains don't count toward her projections.

2027 · Year 1
+$300k

First contribution, start of year.

2028 · Year 2
+$150k

From advances, speaking, licensing. Last money in.

2031 · Year 5
Range

She pitches co-sponsors a dollar range for her 2033 facility contribution, with two years of markets still ahead.

2033 · Year 7
Reserve + facility

Start of year: set aside the operating reserve first, then decide the facility contribution, then pay #1.

2033 to 2042
10 × $50k

Fixed nominal, start of each year. No grants or fees may cover these.

Reserve and range calculator

10,000 simulated market paths from your return assumptions. Phase A is the growth years, phase B is the two years after she has already told co-sponsors a number.

Phase A · 2027 to 2030 returns
Roughly: 4 to 6% is bond-heavy, 10 to 13% is a 60/40 style mix, 16%+ is mostly equities.
Phase B · 2031 to 2032 returns
De-risking after the 2031 pitch narrows the range she has to stand behind.
2033 decisions
What the reserve earns while paying out, e.g. a Treasury ladder matched to each payment date.
Share of what's left after the reserve that Laura keeps instead of giving to the facility.
…Median portfolio at start of 2033
…Operating reserve needed (PV of 10 × $50k)
…Paths where 2033 portfolio is below the reserve
…Median facility contribution

Portfolio value, start of each year

10th to 90th percentile25th to 75thMedianReserve needed in 2033
What Laura could tell co-sponsors in 2031

…

Facility contribution percentiles, seen from today

Outcome2033 portfolioAfter reserveFacilityKept back

How this works. Each year's return is drawn from a lognormal distribution with your mean and volatility, independent year to year. Contributions land at the start of 2027 and 2028, before that year's return. The reserve is the present value of ten $50,000 start-of-year payments at the reserve yield (an annuity due).

What it leaves out. Real markets have fatter tails and streaks than this model. 2033 bond yields are unknown today, so the reserve size itself is uncertain: Teams should stress-test with a bad sequence (for example a 2008-style year in 2032) and explain their own assumptions.

Case lens

Ask questions about Laura's goals and constraints, or paste a strategy draft to see where it lines up with her priorities. It answers from the case and labels what is fact, what is inference, and what the case never says. It coaches; it won't write your deliverables.

Ask the case

Try one of these, or ask your own.

Values check

0 words

Rules people miss

Cash-flow rules

  • Year number = calendar year minus 2026. Every flow happens at the start of its year.
  • The $50k payments are fixed and nominal. No inflation adjustment.
  • Reserve is set aside in 2033 before payment #1 and before the facility contribution.
  • Projections start from $300k and $150k. WInS gains or losses never enter them.
  • No taxes, no Taiwan legal or regulatory work.

What you must decide

  • Reserve size, starting mix, and how the mix changes as payments are made.
  • Your own definition of "high degree of certainty" and how you measured it.
  • A facility contribution that keeps her flexible. No contingency fund sizing needed.
  • A 2031 dollar range, your confidence in it, and draft co-sponsor wording.
  • Your assumptions on returns, timing, outside money, inflation and facility costs.

What you should not do

  • Count grants, co-sponsors or program fees toward the ten payments.
  • Estimate the facility's total cost or write a business plan.
  • Put reserve math, projections or the final range in the IPS. Those belong in the Final Report.
  • Add graphics, links, footnotes or citations to the IPS.
  • Buy stocks under $5 on WInS. ETFs and government bonds on WInS are fine.